5 On-Chain Factors Suggest Bitcoin’s Bull Run Could Have Started: Analysis

Published on 19 January 2023 at 14:49

CryptoQuant joins Glassnode in predicting that BTC’s year-long bear cycle could be done.


With bitcoin’s price surging by over $5,000 since the start of the year and reclaiming $20,000, the number of analysts predicting that the asset is out of the woods continues to increase.

CryptoQuant is the latest analytics company to offer some insight into the key on-chain signals that could suggest the start of a bull run.

  • Shortly after Santiment informed that the supply of bitcoin held on centralized exchanges had dropped to a multi-year low, CryptoQuant outlined the movements between different types of trading venues as the first positive sign for BTC.
  • More precisely, the analysts believe the transfers of assets from spot to derivatives platforms show that traders have entered a “risk-on” mode, which suggests “the beginning of a new bull cycle.”
  • The MVRV ratio is next, which shows whether BTC’s price is under or overvalued, comparing the actual market cap with the asset’s market price.

“MVRV is above 1 (1.07), and it is close to its 365-day moving average (orange line), which shows that bitcoin is about to start a new uptrend.”

  • The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is also close to the 365-day MA, which suggests the same as the MVRL.

Bitcoin MVRV. Source: CryptoQuant

  • The Puell Multiple – showing the ratio of the daily dollar worth of newly issued BTC to their one-year MA – is the fourth signal. It displays positive signs as the asset’s price passed its 365-day MA for the first time in over two years.
  • Lastly, CryptoQuant’s P&L index, which combines several indicators (the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR) into one, is “close to giving a buying signal for BTC.” Although the company said the Index still shows that bitcoin is expensive in the short term, it’s on the verge of changing its tides.
  • Recall that Glassnode also said there are early signs of a starting bull market after a bear cycle that lasted for about a year.


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